By Akracia – Fenikso Nigra
Unemployment at 5.4%. Controlled inflation at 3.95%. GDP growing. Government celebrates best economic indicators in more than a decade. Experts speak of stability. Market projects continuity.
But 48% of population evaluates economy worsened in last 12 months.
The contradiction isn’t statistical. It’s political.
Macroeconomic indicators measure aggregates. Unemployment of 5.4% means 94.6% of workforce is occupied. Seems great. Until examining what work this is. Delivery person cycling 12 hours daily for R$ 40. Day worker without rights working three days weekly. Autonomous seller without fixed income. All appear as “employed” in statistics.
Inflation of 3.95% within target impresses economists. For family spending 70% of income on food, housing and transport, general number means little. Meat rose 20%. Rent consumes half of salary. Bus fare became more expensive. Inflation felt in household budget isn’t same measured by IPCA.
Discrepancy between macro and micro isn’t new. It’s characteristic of economy working well for minority and poorly for majority.
GDP growth distributes unequally. Export agribusiness breaks records. Financial sector profits billions with high interest. Large companies expand. But salaried worker sees purchasing power stagnated. Small commerce faces expensive credit and weak sales. Urban periphery doesn’t feel recovery.
The 28 billion reais injected into economy through Income Tax exemption up to R$ 5,000 benefits 16 million people. Real relief for recipients. But relief of R$ 150 monthly doesn’t transform reality when rent costs R$ 1,500, basic basket R$ 800, transport R$ 400. Savings in IR disappears in cost of living.
Interest at 15% per year presented as technical necessity to control inflation. In practice, freezes consumption, makes credit expensive, protects rentiers. Government announces cut to 12.25% by end of 2026 as achievement. But 12.25% continues being very high real interest by international standard. Family financing home or car continues paying heavy installments.
Dissatisfaction captured by surveys reflects this reality. March 2026 Quaest survey shows 48% evaluate economic worsening in last 12 months. Highest percentage in six months. Datafolha points to 51% government disapproval. Not due to population’s economic ignorance, but direct knowledge of own material conditions.
Economist Christino Áureo summarized contradiction: “Although macroeconomics points to inflation within target and low unemployment rate, what citizen is perceiving isn’t being sufficient.” It’s not mistaken perception. It’s reality that aggregate indicators don’t capture.
International comparison reinforces this diagnosis. Countries with similar unemployment and controlled inflation don’t face popular dissatisfaction at same level when wages follow cost of living, public services function, credit is accessible. In Brazil, macroeconomic indicators improve while majority’s microeconomic conditions remain difficult.
IMF reduced Brazil’s growth projection to 1.6% in 2026, citing restrictive monetary policy. Even international organizations recognize high interest slows economy. But brake isn’t equal for all. Rentier living from applications profits with Selic at 15%. Worker needing credit pays more for everything.
2026 elections occur in this context. Government tries capitalizing macro indicators. Opposition exploits micro dissatisfaction. Both dispute narrative about same reality. But narrative doesn’t change bank account of those struggling to close month.
Historical experiences show macroeconomic stability without income distribution doesn’t sustain politically. Argentina in 1990s had controlled inflation, stable exchange, praise from international organizations. Collapsed in deep social crisis when majority realized stability didn’t reach pocket.
Brazil of 2026 isn’t in crisis like Argentina of 2001. But pattern is similar: economy functions for some, survives for many. This structure generates political instability even when macro numbers seem solid.
Alternatives exist but require different political choices. Prioritize real minimum wage following cost of living. Invest in quality public transport reducing family expenses. Build popular housing decreasing rent weight. Make credit accessible without extortionate interest. Strengthen public services reducing need for private expenses.
Each of these measures has fiscal cost. But there’s also social cost of doing nothing while macro indicators improve and majority’s life remains difficult. Economic stability not translating into social welfare is political instability waiting to erupt.
Discrepancy between numbers and reality reveals who matters in current economic model. Indicators are designed to measure what interests those deciding economic policy. Official unemployment doesn’t distinguish dignified work from precarious. Aggregate inflation doesn’t weigh more foods consuming poor’s income. GDP grows even when majority doesn’t grow along.
Between celebrating numbers not reaching pocket and demanding economy working for majority, no neutrality is possible.
In struggle we continue—dignified, free, and untamable.